席卷北美的冬季風(fēng)暴已經(jīng)切斷了數(shù)百萬(wàn)人的電力供應(yīng)，并打亂了另外數(shù)百萬(wàn)人的圣誕旅行計(jì)劃
雖然美國(guó)電網(wǎng)避免了任何災(zāi)難性的故障，但Sabine Pass和Corpus Christi液化天然氣終端生產(chǎn)很可能被中斷
歐洲明年將需要大量的液化天然氣，因?yàn)樗辉偈褂卯a(chǎn)能大國(guó)天然氣，像這樣的短缺將變得越來(lái)越麻煩
中國(guó)石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)12月26日?qǐng)?bào)道，席卷美國(guó)的巨大的致命冬季風(fēng)暴可能會(huì)擾亂全球最大的液化天然氣（LNG）出口國(guó)之一的供應(yīng)，使今年價(jià)格大起大落的市場(chǎng)變得緊張。
美國(guó)的北極風(fēng)暴切斷了數(shù)百萬(wàn)家庭的電力供應(yīng)，由于成千上萬(wàn)的航班被取消，又有數(shù)百萬(wàn)人的圣誕旅行計(jì)劃被打亂。就在圣誕假期周末之前，近2.5億美國(guó)和加拿大居民以某種方式受到風(fēng)暴的影響，至少有19人死亡與冰封天氣和嚴(yán)寒有關(guān)。
美國(guó)墨西哥灣沿岸的所有州——得克薩斯州、路易斯安那州、阿拉巴馬州和佛羅里達(dá)州都發(fā)出了冰封警告。
雖然得克薩斯州的電網(wǎng)在風(fēng)暴期間設(shè)法避免了災(zāi)難性的故障，但航運(yùn)機(jī)構(gòu)警告說(shuō)，在為Sabine Pass最大的液化天然氣出口終端服務(wù)的水道上，可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)航行中斷。
根據(jù)彭博社援引莫蘭航運(yùn)公司的通知，12月26日（星期一）之前的冰凍溫度可能會(huì)延遲或暫停為Sabine Pass服務(wù)的薩賓關(guān)口的引航服務(wù)。此外，莫蘭航運(yùn)公司說(shuō)，由于冬季的極端天氣，引航員已經(jīng)暫停船舶在得克薩斯州科珀斯克里斯蒂港的?？俊Ｒ虼?，前往科珀斯克里斯蒂的液化天然氣出口設(shè)施的船舶交通可能會(huì)受到影響。
圣誕節(jié)期間美國(guó)的冬季風(fēng)暴可能是今年影響全球液化天然氣市場(chǎng)的最新極端事件。
就在上周，澳大利亞近海的浮式液化天然氣出口設(shè)施Prelude發(fā)生火災(zāi)，迫使運(yùn)營(yíng)商殼牌公司關(guān)閉了生產(chǎn)，而此前Prelude在FLNG進(jìn)行了長(zhǎng)達(dá)數(shù)月的工業(yè)行動(dòng)后恢復(fù)了運(yùn)營(yíng)，距此僅僅三個(gè)月。
澳大利亞也是世界上最大的液化天然氣出口國(guó)之一，與美國(guó)和卡塔爾并列，但正是美國(guó)的液化天然氣幫助歐洲在今年冬天之前達(dá)到了舒適的天然氣儲(chǔ)存供應(yīng)水平。
美國(guó)已經(jīng)向歐洲運(yùn)送了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的液化天然氣，以幫助歐盟盟友，最近幾個(gè)月，大約70%的美國(guó)液化天然氣出口都運(yùn)往歐洲。
今年早些時(shí)候，由于歐洲競(jìng)相在今年冬天之前囤積超低溫燃料，液化天然氣的價(jià)格飆升至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄。歐盟擺脫對(duì)產(chǎn)能大國(guó)天然氣的依賴(lài)的動(dòng)機(jī)，使歐洲成為靈活合同液化天然氣貨物的首選目的地，特別是來(lái)自美國(guó)的貨物。
根據(jù)牛津能源研究所（OIES）的估計(jì)，在1月至11月期間，歐盟和英國(guó)的液化天然氣進(jìn)口總量同比猛增65%。僅從美國(guó)的進(jìn)口就猛增了176%，而從其他來(lái)源的進(jìn)口則增長(zhǎng)了27%。OIES說(shuō)，在同一時(shí)期，全球液化天然氣出口僅增長(zhǎng)了5.5%，其中近一半的增長(zhǎng)來(lái)自美國(guó)。
分析師和業(yè)內(nèi)人士說(shuō)，明年，歐洲將需要更多的液化天然氣供應(yīng)，以抵消來(lái)自產(chǎn)能大國(guó)的低水平（或可能不存在的）管道流量。
大宗商品交易商托克公司（Trafigura）本月早些時(shí)候說(shuō)，隨著管道天然氣輸送量的暴跌，歐洲明年將需要“大量”的液化天然氣，并補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，它預(yù)計(jì)天然氣和液化天然氣市場(chǎng)將繼續(xù)波動(dòng)。
托克公司在其截至9月30日的年度報(bào)告中說(shuō)，雖然歐洲應(yīng)該通過(guò)利用庫(kù)存和減少需求來(lái)避免今年冬天的停電，但鑒于來(lái)自產(chǎn)能大國(guó)的流量大量減少，它在2023年將需要進(jìn)口大量的液化天然氣。
托克公司稱(chēng)，歐洲的天然氣價(jià)格必須保持高位，以便歐洲能夠繼續(xù)吸引大部分液化天然氣貨物，與其他主要需求中心競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。該商品交易商預(yù)計(jì)，歐洲將優(yōu)先考慮供應(yīng)安全，“直到明年冬天和以后”。
曹海斌 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)
Huge U.S. Winter Storm Threatens To Tighten LNG Market
The winter storm sweeping across North America has cut off power supply to millions and disrupted Christmas travel plans for millions more.
While the U.S. power grid avoided any catastrophic failures, the Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi LNG terminals could well be disrupted.
Europe will need huge volumes of LNG next year as it turns its back on Russian gas, and shortages such as this one will become increasingly problematic.
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The gigantic deadly winter storm sweeping through the United States could disrupt global supply from one of the top liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters, tightening a market that’s seen wild swings in prices this year.
The Arctic blast in the United States cut off the power supply to millions of households and disrupted Christmas travel plans for millions more as thousands of flights were canceled. Just ahead of the Christmas holiday weekend, almost 250 million U.S. and Canadian residents were affected by the storm in one way or another, and at least 19 deaths were connected to the icy blast and the severe winter conditions.
Hard-freeze warnings have been issued for all the states along the U.S. Gulf Coast—Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, and Florida.
While the Texas power grid managed to avoid catastrophic failures during the storm, shipping agencies warn there could be a disruption of navigation on waterways servicing the biggest LNG export terminal at Sabine Pass.
Freezing temperatures until Monday, December 26, could delay or suspend pilot services for the Sabine-Neches Waterway servicing Sabine Pass, per notices by Moran Shipping quoted by Bloomberg. Moreover, pilots have suspended the docking of ships at the port of Corpus Christi in Texas due to the extreme winter weather, Moran Shipping says. As a result, vessel traffic to the LNG export facility at Corpus Christi could be impacted.
The winter storm in the U.S. during Christmas could be the latest extreme event to affect the global LNG market this year.
Just last week, a fire at the floating LNG export facility Prelude offshore Australia forced the operator, Shell, to shut down production, just three months after Prelude resumed operations following a months-long industrial action at the FLNG.
Australia is also one of the world’s top LNG exporters, alongside the U.S. and Qatar, but it has been American LNG that has helped Europe reach comfortable gas storage supply levels ahead of this winter.
The United States has shipped record volumes of LNG to Europe to help EU allies and around 70% of all American LNG exports have headed to Europe in recent months.
LNG prices surged to records earlier this year as Europe was racing to stock up on the superchilled fuel ahead of this winter. The EU’s incentive to shake off Russian gas dependence and replace volumes that the bigger producer no longer supplies has made Europe the preferred destination of flexible-contract LNG cargoes, especially those from the United States.
Between January and November, LNG imports into the EU and the UK combined jumped by 65% year over year, according to estimates from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES). Imports from the United States alone surged by 176%, while imports from other sources grew by 27%. In that same period, global LNG exports grew by just 5.5%, with nearly half of the growth coming from the United States, OIES said.
Next year, Europe will need even more LNG supply to offset low (or possibly non-existent) pipeline flows from the bigger producer, analysts and industry players say.
With the plunge in Russian pipeline gas deliveries, Europe will need “huge volumes” of LNG next year, commodity trader Trafigura said earlier this month, adding it expects continued volatility in the natural gas and LNG markets.
“While Europe should avoid a blackout this winter by drawing on inventories and cutting demand, it will need to import huge volumes of LNG in 2023 given the massive reduction in flows from the bigger producer,” Trafigura said in its annual report for the year to September 30.
Natural gas prices in Europe will have to remain elevated so that the continent can continue to attract most of the LNG cargoes in competition with the other key demand centers, according to Trafigura. The commodity trader expects Europe to prioritize the security of supply “through next winter and beyond.”
