據(jù)離岸工程網(wǎng)站3月27日消息 澳大利亞能源市場運營商周五表示，除非在當(dāng)?shù)亻_發(fā)更多天然氣田、擴建管道，否則澳大利亞需要在2024年前為南部各州進口液化天然氣，以避免供應(yīng)短缺。
澳大利亞能源市場運營商（AEMO）在其年度天然氣展望中表示，盡管過去一年承諾的天然氣開發(fā)有所增加，但預(yù)計未來五年南方天然氣供應(yīng)量將下降35%以上。
AEMO 表示：“除非開發(fā)更多的南方供應(yīng)源，推進液化天然氣進口終端，或解決管道限制問題，天然氣供應(yīng)限制和減少天然氣發(fā)電……從2024年開始，南方各州的冬季高峰期可能會來臨。”
三個液化天然氣進口項目正在籌劃中，AGL能源計劃在2022年在維多利亞州開放其終端，目前等待環(huán)保部門的批準(zhǔn)。新南威爾士州的兩個項目進度則更為緩慢。
維多利亞州對天然氣的需求非常迫切，這依賴于家庭和制造商的天然氣需求，預(yù)計在2023年年中至2024年年中，該州的幾個近海氣田將停止生產(chǎn)。
AEMO說：“如果生產(chǎn)提前停止，這可能會在2023年造成維多利亞州冬季供應(yīng)高峰缺口。”
報告警告稱，由于全球液化天然氣市場的動態(tài)變化，預(yù)測未來五年天然氣供應(yīng)是否充足較為困難。
吳恒磊 編譯自 離岸工程
原文如下：
Australia May Need LNG Imports from 2024
Australia will need to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 2024 for its southern states to avoid shortfalls unless more gas fields are developed locally and pipelines are expanded, the country's energy market operator said on Friday.
Despite an increase in committed gas developments over the past year, southern gas supply is expected to drop by more than 35% over the next five years, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) said in its annual gas outlook.
"Unless additional southern supply sources are developed, LNG import terminals are progressed, or pipeline limitations are addressed, gas supply restrictions and curtailment of gas-powered generation... may be necessary on peak winter days in southern states from 2024," AEMO said.
Three LNG import projects are on the drawing board, with AGL Energy aiming to open its terminal in Victoria state in 2022 pending environmental approvals. Two rival projects in New South Wales state are further behind.
The need is acute in Victoria state, dependent on gas for households and manufacturers, where several offshore gas fields are forecast to stop producing between mid-2023 and mid-2024.
"If production ceases earlier, this could create peak winter day supply gaps in Victoria in 2023," AEMO said.
It warned that forecasting whether gas supplies would be adequate over the next five years was difficult, due to changing dynamics in the global LNG market.
